Hard data, cold logic
GLOBAL OIL FORECASTING
The strategic radar for detecting, anticipating and managing threats and opportunities for oil and non-oil corporates and governments
'Without data you are just another person with an opinion'
NBR combines hard data and cold logic with its proprietary algorithms and processes to produce real foresight....
Whilst most of NBR’s work is client-confidential, we do occasionally publish research notes, insights on particular parts of our forecast, or articles for conferences:
FT Energy Strategies Summit, April 2015: The Sultans of Swing, Saudi’s attack on the oil price
Insight, May 2015: Iran and Russia’s Strategic Alliance?
Research Note: POTMO: A new way of understanding and forecasting GDP
Insight, November 2015: Japan Liquid Power
If you would like access to NBR articles, contact us.
...to create the best strategic radar in the marketplace for detecting, anticipating and managing oil market threats and opportunities.
Whether you are producing, processing or relying on liquid hydrocarbons you are taking long term risks. Taking investment decisions can expose you to hydrocarbon price /availability risks for decades ahead. Future supply, demand and price predictions are a key input to those decisions, but sound analytical foresight is hard to find; even at a considerable cost.
Future narratives generally available today compete, confuse, and proliferate. What is the right picture? How reliable is your forecasting? How can conflicting “models” be reconciled? Who is useful, and who is not?
NewsBase Research (NBR) was founded on the principle that simplistic trend extrapolation is not good enough for those making muti-million- or billion-dollar decisions whose outcomes depend on future hydrocarbon price /availability.
We believe the global Liquid Hydrocarbons market is a Complex Dynamic System, with many variables interacting over time.
NBR has ‘decoded’ this system to understand these variables and how they interact [see NBR Methodology], providing our clients with a forecasting service that moves away from trend extrapolation and focuses on detecting, anticipating and managing oil market threats and opportunities.
NBR’s full forecast is available as part of the Global Oil Forecasting Service (NBROF). More specific forecasts for particular countries, regions or specialist areas of interest come as part of our Specialist Oil Foresight .
The vast majority of NBR’s forecast is client-confidential, however we do occasionally publish articles and consider speaker slots at conferences as and when appropriate.
GLOBAL OIL FORECASTING SERVICE (NBROF)
NBR’s Global Annual Forecasting Service provides a future narrative for the global Liquid Hydrocarbons industry, forecasting supply, demand, trade flows and price pressure zones over a 40-year horizon.
SPECIALIST OIL FORESIGHTS
Using the Annual Forecast as a platform, we can ‘lift’ subject areas from this forecast to provide Specialist Oil Foresights on particular areas of interest, or over specific timespans. These can range from a particular country or region’s supply and/or demand forecast over a particular time frame, to forecasts for sectors such as Tight Oil, Gas-to-Liquids, or a forecast for when particular substitution technologies may start to impact future demand.
BESPOKE RESEARCH & CONSULTING SERVICES
We supply data research and consulting to respond to specific client needs and requirements. This service can be supplied remotely or on-site for use in client’s seminars or strategy sessions.
Our radar works...
'We expect Saudi to create price volatility through periods of over-and-underproduction in order to discourage investment in industrial or unconventional liquids - especially US tight oil'
NBROF Annual Report July 2014, p70
Collapse of Brent from September 2014
4 year trading range : $89-$128
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Declined 15%...
“We estimate that continuing the attack to the end of 2015 would cost Saudi around $100bn in relative terms – around double its entire defence budget, and 15% of its SWF.”
NBROF Q1 Update, January 2015, p12
US Tight Oil Production (mbpd)...
“We… estimate that actual [US tight oil] production… will continue to follow a rising track until around March/April this year… but… level off in the spring and early summer, before showing month-on-month declines in H2 2015.”
NBROF Q1 Update, January 2015, p7-8
In 2015 we carried out 15 year projection of the Kazakhstan Liquids system for a major US E&P company. The task took 3 weeks to complete at a cost of US$10k
NBR MANAGEMENT TEAM
NewsBase has been analysing the global oil industry since 1995, and its subscribers include 90% of the top 100 oil and gas companies worldwide. In 2009, we formed NewsBase Research (NBR) to add hard analytical data to NewsBase’s commentaries and news flows.
With a team of a dozen expert analysts, led by founder Prof Gav Don, NewsBase has developed its own proprietary forecasting algorithms and datasets to deliver powerful long-term modelling of the global liquid hydrocarbons economy.
NBROF has informed NewsBase editors’ understanding of the trends in the oil industry for three years. Now it is available to subscribers within and outside the oil economy who need to understand how long and short term supply, demand and price prospects of oil will affect their own business.
HEAD OF RESEARCH
PROF. GAVIN DON
CENTRUM HOUSE, 108 DUNDAS STREET,
EDINBURGH. EH3 5DQ. UK.
For any general inquiries, please fill in the following contact form: