Broadly speaking, many forecasting services focus on geophysics (field and well data) for their supply model and global economics for their demand models, with the trend forecasts for supply and demand determining their price assumptions.
The classic forecaster's view
If only it were that simple
NewsBase Research (NBR) defines the global Liquid Hydrocarbons market as a Complex Dynamic System, with many variables interacting over time. These variables interacting influences the oil market Equilibrium, the effect of which is felt throughout the system altering future views on supply, demand and price.
NBR’s Complex Dynamic System
NBR set out to ‘decode’ this system to forecast how these variables would interact over time to affect future Equilibrium, and thus future supply, demand and price pressures.
Geophysics and economics play a big part in our supply and demand model, however the future track of these is very much dependant on something that cannot be quantified by a dataset: geopolitics and human decision-making with views on security, technology and risk.
NBR Decodes The Complex Dynamics of Global Liquid Hydrocarbons.
NBR analysts combine hard data in our geophysical and economic datasets with cold logic on geopolitics and human decision-making in a unique algorithmic forecasting process unlike anything else available on the market today:-
Dynamic Iterative Forecasting
On the supply side, NBR’s proprietary BasinologyTM datasets analyse and predict the production profiles of sedimentary basins and geological regions/systems. This is supplemented by analysis and forecasting for tight oil and Liquids produced through industrial processes such as oil sands, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids and refinery gains.
On the demand side, NBR tracks and predicts national Oil Intensity Factors, using a proprietary GDP forecasting model vs oil consumption per head for each country. We also forecast movements in the efficiency (or in-efficiency) of the top 180 world economies.
Feeding in to these datasets and algorithms are geopolitical and financial moderations from the wider NewsBase team, providing NBR analysts with analysis and foresight on their specialism for the forecasting process:
NewsBase’s editorial team are at the heart of the hydrocarbons industry news flow, with in-region specialists having a deep understanding of politics and investment in their area of focus, providing NBR analysts with foresight on how geopolitics will influence a specific country’s production and demand. For example:
Political change in Latin America (Argentina, Mexico, Brazil’s corruption, Venezuela).
Saudi Arabia’s motivations and influences.
Iran’s return to the international on fold: on what scale, and when?
China’s economy and political interests in the South China Sea.
InnovOil report on the latest advances in E&P technology, such as Enhanced Oil Recovery, allowing NBR analysts to forecast the impact of production efficiency on future oil flows.
Electrans looks specifically at the future of transportation, and allows NBR analysts to understand the timing and impact of the potential substitution of oil as a transportation fuel.
In which countries and on what scale will electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles impact future demand?
Are there any shipping or airline transportation fuel game-changers on the horizon?
As Equilibrium changes, components of the System will behave differently in response. Through a process of Dynamic Iterative ForecastingTM, or DIF-ing, NBR analysts forecast these responses as Equilibrium changes over time. By ‘rinsing and repeating’ this cycle, stability is eventually reached and that provides NBR’s future narrative for the oil market.
Dynamic Iterative ForecastingTM
Our Approach delivers powerful long-term modelling of the global Liquid Hydrocarbons industry, analysis of supply and demand, and identifies when price pressure zones are likely to arise in future.
CENTRUM HOUSE, 108 DUNDAS STREET,
EDINBURGH. EH3 5DQ. UK.
For any general inquiries, please fill in the following contact form: